Well, Duke played terribly yesterday.  Even if they had won, I wouldn’t have felt that great.  They just didn’t have the pieces to put together a NC run.  I’m still in each of the pools that I’ve entered but with less scenarios to won obv.  This is a rough estimate and applies only to the HSNL pool.  I need at least the following to happen for me to win that pool.  I need Kansas, Syracuse and Gonzaga to win today.  I don’t think it matters which team makes the F4 out of the Midwest so as long as Missouri beats them.  Villanova needs to beat Pitt which isn’t unreasonable after watching them play yesterday.  As long as Gonzaga and Syracuse wins tonight, I don’t think it matters who makes the F4 as long as Kansas wins but if Gonzaga were to make the NC they would have to lose to Missouri.  I’d say I have about a 4% chane of winning.

For today, I want Louisville to get upset, but there is a scenario in which that could potentially backfire and must have Gonzaga win.  I’d like Kansas & Syracuse to both win, but I think I can settle for 1 of them to do so to still be mathematically alive.  Unfortunately, you can’t plug in scenarios into CBS like you could using the site that I used when I ran Jensen Madness, so I’m not sure if I got this thing down right.  It’ll be much easier to figure out my winning scenarios after tonight, but first I need to win a few games.